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Articles

Vol. 3 No.2: June, 2015

Changes in Head of Government and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Nigeria

  • Queen E.Oye
  • Philip O. Alege, Ph.D
Submitted
February 29, 2016
Published
2016-02-29

Abstract

This study investigates the phenomena that dynamics in macroeconomic variables such
as real output growth can be explained by changes or the removal of the person in
charge of government, a phenomenon termed, government turnover. Using the
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMAX), the findings show that
changes in head of government did not significantly explain variations in Nigeria‟s
aggregate economy. In addition, changes in head of government correlated negatively
with shifts in the economy. The political economy implication is that frequent changes
in government (a measure of the extent of political instability) ca n affect negatively the
aggregate economy. On the other hand, the insignificance of the political dummy
variable measuring government turnover reflects either that: First, political shifts is a
negligible source of fluctuation, secondly, that the Nigerian economy is resilient to
absorb readily politically induced shocks and thirdly, that changes in head of
government has an indirect impact on the economy.

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